Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis (Feb 2013)
Regarding ad homininum (circumstantial)
Let X be AGW
1. Person A makes claim ~X.
2. Person B asserts that A makes claim ~X because it is in A’s interest to claim ~X.
3. Therefore claim ~X is false.
If Person B’s assetion is that ~X is false simply because the persons surveyed are petroleum engineers, I agree that argument is fallacious.
But there is a deeper problem. The author obscured the actual scope of the survey, so we aren’t even in agreement about the identity of “Person A”. And the identity of “Person A” has great relevance on the claim, since the whole op-ed is an argument from authority. In the beginning … “these skeptical scientists may indeed form a scientific consensus.” … and again in the end …”Now that we have access to hard surveys of scientists themselves” … much less the title of the piece … “Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis”
How does the Forbes op-ed construct this consensus of scientists?
Through a fallacy of composition
1. A ‘consensus’ A makes the claim ~X OR ~Y
2. All A are an element of B
3. All B are an element of C
4. Therefore a ‘consensus’ of C makes the claim ~X OR ~Y
A is petroleum engineers from Alberta
B is geoscientists
C is scientists
X is ‘AGW’
Y is ‘crisis’
(note how Taylor mixes skepticism of causes (X) and consequences (Y) to construct his ‘majority’ and ‘consensus’)
The composition fallacy is more apparent when the actual group surveyed is revealed which is why it wasn’t and why noting the population surveyed isn’t fallacious. The source of the survey doesn’t prove/disprove ~X OR ~Y; it identifies the composition fallacy.
Looks like Colorado.
More than 100 people are missing in catastrophic bushfires that are ravaging the Australian island of Tasmania.
Some 1,000 people were rescued by boat from the east coast after fires cut off roads, but police say they hold ‘grave fears’ for a number of residents who stayed to defend their homes but have not been heard from.
It comes amid the hottest temperatures ever recorded on the island, peaking at 41.8C (107F) on Friday.
As fires continued to burn yesterday, police and rescue experts began the grim search for bodies in the worst-hit towns of Boomer Bay, where 65 properties were lost, and Dunalley, both in the south-east of the island.
More pics at Daily Mail UK: Tasmania-bushfires-Grave-fears-stayed-defend-homes
Jeff Spross @ Climate Progress has more background and details.
‘Sprawling Heat Wave Of Historical Proportions’ Brings ‘Horrendous’ Wildfires To Australia
Jeff Masters @ Wunderground
Historic heat wave brings Australia its hottest average temperature on record
A pair of solar-driven climate papers by Weber and Le Mouël …
Strong signature of the active Sun in 100 years of terrestrial insolation data
Article first published online: 21 MAY 2010
A solar pattern in the longest temperature series from three stations in Europe
Le Mouël, Jean-Louis; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Courtillot, Vincent
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Volume 72, Issue 1, p. 62-76.
has come under criticism by Feulner and Legras, respectively.
The Smithsonian solar constant data revisited: no evidence for cosmic-ray induced aerosol formation in terrestrial insolation data
Volumes and Issues Contents of Issue 1
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 2297-2316, 2011
A critical look at solar-climate relationships from long temperature series
B. Legras, O. Mestre, E. Bard, and P. Yiou
Clim. Past, 6, 745-758, 2010
Zeke tries to tease out natural -v- anthropogenic attribution in the AMO.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Modern Warming Hausfather @ The Blackboard
I’ve udpated the previous recap with some work by Stokes on Antarctic warming and Eschenbach on precipitation extremes.
Note: Science Direct is down for maintenance this morning – so some links may not work and some abstracts are missing. Updated
Update 20110220: I’ve added both some older and newer technical links to the S09/O10 information and will continue to do so as good links become available (or I find interesting old ones).
The “Tribe-said/Team-said” BS seems to be simmering down some and a couple of blogs are looking under the hood to see what all the fuss is about (technically) in the Steig 2009 / ODonnell 2010 kerfluffle.
kgnd & Cross-Validation: PART II – Parting Thoughts O’Donnell @ the Air Vent
kgnd & Cross-Validation ODonnell @ the Air Vent
Antarctic, RO10, Steig and TempLS Stokes @ Moyhu
Ryan’s Code – testing. Stokes @ Moyhu
Ryan’s Code – S09 with more PCs Stokes @ Moyhu
Ryan’s Code Stokes @ Moyhu
Sensitivity Test: O’Donnell’s idea Lucia @ The Blackboard
A Calmer Conversation with the Nail O’Donnell at The Air Vent
EIV/TLS Regression – Why Use It? RomanM at Statistics and Other Things
The Two-and-One-Half PC Solution RomanM at Statistics and Other Things
Ridge Regression Tamino @ Open Mind
Real Climate and Climate Progress comment on two papers dealing with flooding and precipitation. Dr. Pielke Jr casts these in contrast with flood damage and streamflows. Dr Curry find this kind of analysis “totally unconvincing”. Eschenbach has a reply cast in the usual WUWT scathing tone.:
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000
Pall, Aina, Stone, Stott, Nozawa, Hilberts, Lohmann & Allen (2011)
Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
Min, Zhang, Zwiers & Heger (2011)
A simple and coherent framework for partitioning uncertainty in multi-model climate ensembles is presented. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to decompose a measure of total variation additively into scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability.
A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions (Journal of Climate)
Looks like my winter lull at work is over. However, I continue to work on the Huybers 2006b review. I didn’t spend much time cruising the blogosphere. If you have a science based blog entry you would like to share, feel free to add it to the comments. In fact, I strongly encourage you to do so. Links to your own work welcome.
Ice Cores Yield Rich History of Climate Change
On Friday, Jan. 28 in Antarctica, a research team investigating the last 100,000 years of Earth’s climate history reached an important milestone completing the main ice core to a depth of 3,331 meters (10,928 feet) at West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS). The project will be completed over the next two years with some additional coring and borehole logging to obtain additional information and samples of the ice for the study of the climate record contained in the core. …
…The WAIS Divide Ice Core Project is specifically investigating the small timing offsets between past changes in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and changes in temperature. By understanding these timing offsets, the research team can determine the role that changes in ocean circulation had in the release of carbon dioxide from the ocean and how an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere warms the planet…
And I note that Pielke Sr’s blog is quite a bit more active than I remember. Guess I’ll have to add it my frequent reader list.
Real Climate puts out a weekend reading list.
Kelly @ Charts and graphs shows us Comparison of 2011-11 El Nino – La Nina Cycle with Previous Cycle. He also adds a multiple climate series table for public use. Thank you.
Warming North Atlantic Water Tied to Heating Arctic
The temperatures of North Atlantic Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean adjacent to Greenland — the warmest water in at least 2,000 years — are likely related to the amplification of global warming in the Arctic, says a new international study involving the University of Colorado Boulder.
Led by Robert Spielhagen of the Academy of Sciences, Humanities and Literature in Mainz, Germany, the study showed that water from the Fram Strait that runs between Greenland and Svalbard — an archipelago constituting the northernmost part of Norway — has warmed roughly 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit in the past century. The Fram Strait water temperatures today are about 2.5 degrees F warmer than during the Medieval Warm Period, which heated the North Atlantic from roughly 900 to 1300 and affected the climate in Northern Europe and northern North America.
The team believes that the rapid warming of the Arctic and recent decrease in Arctic sea ice extent are tied to the enhanced heat transfer from the North Atlantic Ocean, said Spielhagen. According to CU-Boulder’s National Snow and Ice Data Center, the total loss of Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2009 was an area larger than the state of Alaska, and some scientists there believe the Arctic will become ice-free during the summers within the next several decades. …