Archive for the ‘CRUTEMP’ Category

Lines, Sines, and Curve Fittings 17 – More Morlets

2011 February 22 4 comments

Natural Variability 1 – One World, Two Cuts

2011 February 15 2 comments

This is a sparse post. It just a test spin on my way to looking for regional trends. Lots of tables, little code.

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Lines, Sines, and Curve Fitting 11 – more extrapolation

2011 January 19 6 comments

I’ve mostly been working through GISTEMP in this series, but the exp+sine results were interesting enough that I wanted to pause and look at both line+sine and exp+sine in all three data sets.

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Lines, Sines, and Curve Fitting 9 – Girma

2011 January 17 39 comments

Dr G. Orssengo recently brought to my attention his “line+sine” model which was presented at WUWT in April 2009. In short, his model is

y = (m*(x-1880) + b) + (A * cos(((x-1880)/T)*(2*pi)))

intercept (1880) b = -0.53
slope m = 0.0059 C / yr
amplitude A = 0.3 C
period T = 60 years

Which he displays as such:

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Did Global Warming Stop After 2007?

2011 January 5 Comments off

One more set of these. This set is up because it shows the best chance to break a recent warm trend. This is because 2008 was relatively low in recent years. Keeping it out of the trend keeps the trend a bit higher and lets a low year kiss the edge of the ‘no trend / cooling trend’ realms.

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Did Global Cooling Stop in 1970?

2011 January 4 Comments off

The 1940 trends in the previous post gave us a look into a rising trend that did break into a ‘no trend’ and then a ‘cooling’ trend – for another 30 years. So I thought it would be interesting to look back from 1970. The 30 trend in 1970 actually shows a slight cooling … and reveals a bug in my code. The ‘no trend’ triangle should now be the triangular area above the trend when the trend is falling. (And I guess the chart title is off as well!)

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Did Global Warming Stop in 1940?

2011 January 3 5 comments

I used the data set prepared by O’Day over at Climate Charts & Graphs. Thus, we have charts for GISTEMP, HadCRU, and NOAA. The data for Dec 2010 is still missing – but I’m using the ave for Jan-Nov for the 2010 annual data.

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10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and More!

2011 January 2 Comments off

After the turn of the century
In the clear blue skies over Germany
Came a roar and a thunder men had never heard
Like the screamin’ sound of a big war bird

Up in the sky, a man in a plane
Baron von Richthofen was his name
Eighty men tried, and eighty men died
Now they’re buried together on the countryside

Ten, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty or more
The Bloody Red Baron was rollin’ up the score
Eighty men died tryin’ to end that spree
Of the Bloody Red Baron of Germany

In the nick of time, a hero arose
A funny-looking dog with a big black nose
He flew into the sky to seek revenge
But the Baron shot him down – “Curses, foiled again!”

In this set, we look at GISTEMP through different lengths of trend.

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Did Global Warming Stop After 2000?

2011 January 1 23 comments

Second verse, same as the first.
So why bother? Completeness.

Did Global Warming Stop After 1998?

2010 December 31 10 comments

Tamino had an interesting post in Jan 2008, nearly three years ago, which I will refer to as Tamino’s Bet. It displayed one way to test if a trend has continued, stalled, or reversed. No doubt that it is not the most rigorous statistical treatment around – maybe not even close. But it sure is visual.

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