McKinnon: The spatial structure of the annual cycle in surface temperature: amplitude, phase, and Lagrangian history
Fig. 7. (a) Monthly temperature anomalies in the latitude band 45-50!N from the advection model driven by HYSPLIT trajectories versus observations. (b) The gain and lag of the modeled annual cycle in polar coordinates showing land (X’s) and ocean (O’s) boxes. Neighboring gridboxes are connected via a thin gray line. (c) The gain of the modeled annual cycle across longitude at 45-50!N using a zonal wind (gray) and with the inclusion of the HYSPLIT trajectory information (black), as compared to the observations (dashed). Land regions are indicated by shading. (d) Similar to (c) but for lag.
The climatological annual cycle in surface air temperature, defined by its amplitude and phase lag with respect to solar insolation, is one of the most familiar aspects of our climate system. Here, we identify three first-order features of the spatial structure of amplitude and phase lag and explain them using simple physical models. Amplitude and phase lag (1) are broadly consistent with a land and ocean end-member mixing model, but (2) exhibit overlap between land and ocean, and, despite this overlap, (3) show a systematically greater lag over ocean than land for a given amplitude. Based on previous work diagnosing relative ocean or land influence as an important control on the extratropical annual cycle, we use a Lagrangian trajectory model to quantify this influence as the weighted amount of time that an ensemble of air parcels has spent over ocean or land. This quantity explains 84% of the space-time variance in the extratropical annual cycle, as well as features (1) and (2). All three features can be explained using a simple energy balance model with land and ocean surfaces and an advecting atmosphere. This model explains 94% of the space-time variance of the annual cycle in an illustrative mid-latitude zonal band when incorporating the results of the trajectory model. The basic features of annual variability in surface air temperature thus appear to be explained by the coupling of land and ocean through mean atmospheric circulation.
The spatial structure of the annual cycle in surface temperature: amplitude, phase, and Lagrangian history
Karen A. McKinnon, Alexander R. Stine, and Peter Huybers
Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View