Frame and Stone: Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change
The solid and dashed lines show the annual variations; the dotted lines show best-fit linear trends. Trend and annual variations are plotted as anomalies from the 1990 value of the trend fit.
ABSTRACT: In 1990, climate scientists from around the world wrote the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It contained a prediction of the global mean temperature trend over the 1990–2030 period that, halfway through that period, seems accurate. This is all the more remarkable in hindsight, considering that a number of important external forcings were not included. So how did this success arise? In the end, the greenhouse-gas-induced warming is largely overwhelming the other forcings, which are only of secondary importance on the 20-year timescale.
Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change
David J. Frame & Dáithí A. Stone
Nature Climate Change 3, 357–359 (2013) doi:10.1038/nclimate1763
Received 31 July 2012 Accepted 01 November 2012 Published online 09 December 2012
TY – JOUR
AU – Frame, David J.
AU – Stone, Daithi A.
TI – Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change
JA – Nature Clim. Change
PY – 2013/04//print
VL – 3
IS – 4
SP – 357
EP – 359
PB – Nature Publishing Group
SN – 1758-678X
UR – http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1763
M3 – 10.1038/nclimate1763
N1 – 10.1038/nclimate1763
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