BOE: Six Degrees of Leavened Baking
We can use the range of potential fossil fuels CO2 emissions developed previously and plot the resulting temperature responses given the common range [2, 3, 4.5] of equilibrium climate sensitivities. Feedbacks are implicitly included in the ECS and do not need to be dealt with explicitly as long as they have been included in the models from which the ECS has been derived.
Ts = Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity = [2, 3, 4.5]
λ = Ts/3.7
ΔF = 5.35 * ln(CO2_future/CO2_preindustrial) W/m2
ΔT = λ * ΔF
I’ve marked with the heavy solid red line what I believe to be the “catastrophic” temperature response of 6C warming. Such catastrophic warming lies within the range of potential ECS and possible fossil fuel CO2 emissions, although it appears unlikely.
I have also marked what I believe to be the “catastrophic” CO2 concentration of 1000 PPM CO2. This level is where I suspect that ocean acidification has the potential to cause a globally-scaled extinction event.
The possibility of 6C warming or 1000 PPM can be quantified given our two PDFs and I will do so in the next post.