Home > BOE, climate > BOE: Six Degrees of Leavened Baking

BOE: Six Degrees of Leavened Baking

2012 May 26

We can use the range of potential fossil fuels CO2 emissions developed previously and plot the resulting temperature responses given the common range [2, 3, 4.5] of equilibrium climate sensitivities. Feedbacks are implicitly included in the ECS and do not need to be dealt with explicitly as long as they have been included in the models from which the ECS has been derived.

Ts = Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity = [2, 3, 4.5]
λ = Ts/3.7
ΔF = 5.35 * ln(CO2_future/CO2_preindustrial) W/m2
ΔT = λ * ΔF

I’ve marked with the heavy solid red line what I believe to be the “catastrophic” temperature response of 6C warming. Such catastrophic warming lies within the range of potential ECS and possible fossil fuel CO2 emissions, although it appears unlikely.

I have also marked what I believe to be the “catastrophic” CO2 concentration of 1000 PPM CO2. This level is where I suspect that ocean acidification has the potential to cause a globally-scaled extinction event.

The possibility of 6C warming or 1000 PPM can be quantified given our two PDFs and I will do so in the next post.

  1. 2012 May 26 at 7:53 am

    Looking over Hansen and Sato Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth’s Climate History (2012), my earlier guess that Cenozoic temps max out around 6C higher than today may be a significant underestimation. This paper (referencing Zachos 2008) caps Cenozoic temps around 12C above today with early Cenozoic in the 8-12C range and not falling to 6C above present until about 40Ma.

    You can see the same information in Beerling and Royer Convergent Cenozoic CO2 history” (2011). However, Beerling and Royer does somewhat support my guess of a Cenozoic upper limit of about 1000 ppm CO2 re ocean acidification.

    I’m duping this comment in C in CAGW

  1. 2012 May 28 at 1:23 pm
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