IPCC AR4 WG1 TS5.1 Fig TS.26 Six Year Review
This is a composite chart showing a range of estimates around the “projected trends” of surface temperature anomalies. This chart appears to be popular given that my link in a comment in Real Climate has already been propagated to comments in Stokes’ Moyhu blog and Watts’ WUWT blog. The recent observations in red are from HadCRUTv3 and are only hand-fitted to the chart. I believe the original observations charted were HadCRUT of one variant or another. Quoting IPCC AR4 WG1: “Projections for 1990 to 2005 carried out for the FAR and the SAR suggested global mean temperature increases of about 0.3°C and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. The difference between the two was due primarily to the inclusion of aerosol cooling effects in the SAR, whereas there was no quantitative basis for doing so in the FAR. Projections given in the TAR were similar to those of the SAR.” I look forward to similar projections in IPCC AR5 WG1.