Home > climate models > IPCC AR4 WG1 TS5.1 Fig TS.26 Six Year Review

IPCC AR4 WG1 TS5.1 Fig TS.26 Six Year Review

2012 March 1

This is a composite chart showing a range of estimates around the “projected trends” of surface temperature anomalies. This chart appears to be popular given that my link in a comment in Real Climate has already been propagated to comments in Stokes’ Moyhu blog and Watts’ WUWT blog. The recent observations in red are from HadCRUTv3 and are only hand-fitted to the chart. I believe the original observations charted were HadCRUT of one variant or another. Quoting IPCC AR4 WG1: “Projections for 1990 to 2005 carried out for the FAR and the SAR suggested global mean temperature increases of about 0.3°C and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. The difference between the two was due primarily to the inclusion of aerosol cooling effects in the SAR, whereas there was no quantitative basis for doing so in the FAR. Projections given in the TAR were similar to those of the SAR.” I look forward to similar projections in IPCC AR5 WG1.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-5-1.html

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  1. Toby
    2012 March 21 at 9:41 am

    Now that HADCRUT4 is out, are you going to replace the HADCRUT3 points?

  2. 2012 March 25 at 7:39 am

    Should I? The observations that the IPCC included in their original chart were HadCRUT3. I would think I would wish to continue with their chosen version. But would HadCRUT4 be a better measure of the skill of the various model ensembles? Probably. So I’ll likely update this to HadCRUT4 next year.

  3. David
    2012 June 7 at 9:16 am

    As far as I know… the IPCC projections in the graph are for HadCRUT3… Not HadCRUT4.

  4. 2012 October 1 at 6:16 am

    I have got the same result as yours => http://orssengo.com/GlobalWarming/IpccProjection.PNG

  5. 2012 October 1 at 6:18 am

    It was for HADCRUT3 and we must continue with that data. Otherwise it would be comparing apples and oranges.

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