Did Global Warming Stop After 1998?
Tamino had an interesting post in Jan 2008, nearly three years ago, which I will refer to as Tamino’s Bet. It displayed one way to test if a trend has continued, stalled, or reversed. No doubt that it is not the most rigorous statistical treatment around – maybe not even close. But it sure is visual.
Here is Tamino’s original chart. You can find the companion text via Skeptical Science’s archive of old Tamino posts.
I’ve slightly altered Tamino’s original format – As I recall (3 years ago), he used an average trend for the 2001-2007 to set the horizontal ‘no trend’ bars. The charts which follow just extend the trendlines horizontally from the last date in the data used to set the trend. And the trend in his original post used data through 2007. This post only uses the data to 1998 to set the trend.
I used the data set prepared by O’Day over at Climate Charts & Graphs (O’Day). Thus, we have charts for GISTEMP, HadCRU, NOAA, UAH, and RSS. The data for Dec 2010 is still missing – but I’m using the ave for Jan-Nov for the 2010 annual data.
The script is here
Satellite data does not extend far enough back to run 30 year trends. These are 18 year trends.