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The Blunt Skippy

2010 February 16

Joe Romm at Climate Progress is looking for ideas to populate his new Climate Science project (here and here). This reminded me of an old page I posted called the Four Points of AGW aka The Blunt Skippy. It sketches out the basics of AGW theory. Real Climate did a similar, but better page in six easy points.

Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) Theory

[1] Humans add CO2 to the atmosphere

Global, Regional, and National Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

[2] The CO2 content of the atmosphere is increasing

CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

[3] CO2 is a greenhouse gas (a gas which helps warm the surface of the earth)

Radiative Heating Due to Increased CO2: The Role of H2O Continuum Absorption in the 12-18um range.
Kiehl, Ramanathan, 1982

[4] The temperature of the earth is rising

GISS Surface Temperature Analysis

Temperature (Hadley Center Research Unit – HADCRU)

UAH Satellite Data for Lower Troposphere
Wood for Trees: UAH

RSS Satellite Data for Lower Troposphere
Wood for Trees: RSS

[1] -> [2]

The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of Our Knowledge of Earth as a System
Falkowski, et al, 2000

[2]+[3] -> [4]

Radiative Transfer Within the Earth’s Troposphere and Stratosphere: A Simplified Radiative-Convective Model
Ramanathan, 1976

Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model
Hansen, et al, 1988


For a detailed explanation of these points, see the CO2 – An Insignificant Trace Gas? series at The Science of Doom


Testing the Models

For some recent discussion on testing the models used to link CO2 and recent warming:

Chad @ Wood For Trees
AR4 Model Hypothesis Tests

Lucia @ The Blackboard
Multi-Model Mean Projection Rejects: GISSTemp, start dates ‘50, ‘60, ‘70, ‘80.

HadCrut Compared to IPCC Simulations Ending Dec. 2009.

Tamino @ Open Mind

Nick @ Moyhu
Testing the performance of GCM models